What are the chances for teams to finish third in the 2026 World Cup?


After a surprise draw against Spain, Cape Verde's chance to progress to the round of 32 is a real possibility. These teams might now be asking themselves the same question, albeit approaching it from different angles: How can we get one of those third places? Here's the short answer, based on thousands of simulations from our World Cup Tracker: If you finish third with four points, you're almost guaranteed a spot in the knockout rounds. If you finish third with three points, you have a good chance of advancing unless your target average is worse than -2. With two points in third place, the chance of advancing is virtually nil. This particular chart is just a snapshot from Wednesday evening. Our forecast page will have this information in real time — including during matches — and will change to reflect the scores from the tournament so far. Some fans may not have thought about this yet, but the question of which teams will advance to the knockout rounds is more complicated than it seems, thanks to this year's tournament's new structure. The top eight (out of twelve) third-placed teams will now advance (previously only the top two teams in each group did). There isn't much history to calibrate a team's chance at a spot. This is further complicated by the tournament calendar itself: Teams that finish third in Group A, B or C, for example — perhaps a country like the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Scotland — will have to wait several days for the other groups before knowing for sure whether they can advance. The details will vary from team to team, but our forecast provides a detailed picture: Three points and a goal average close to zero or better is a reasonable mental cutoff for third place. That said, it is also possible to finish fourth with three points, in which case a team will not advance regardless of their goal average. And those who finish third must avoid major defeats. Obviously the best way to not worry about continuing with three points is to get four points. But here's the big picture. The sooner your team finishes the group stage, the less useful the third-place standings will be. But we can provide some tips to help you keep track of all the opportunities: First, visit your team's page on our tracker tool. This provides a match-by-match guide to which outcomes will most help your team's chances. In addition, follow our live forecast of which groups are best positioned for third place. The official standings are not particularly useful for understanding which teams are on course for third place, as the teams currently third in their group are not necessarily the teams most likely to finish there. If you're hoping for your team to finish third, you shouldn't focus on a specific team, but on the group that produces that team. This graph, updated live on our forecast page, shows how likely a third-placed team from a group is to advance — and secondarily, which team that group is likely to be. Even if Sweden doesn't score any more points, it will start with a +4 goal average. With twoconsecutive 2-0 defeats would leave it with three points and an equal goal average, which according to our chart should keep it safe if it finishes third. And if Japan or the Netherlands finish third, they would be in a great position too. They would only need a win over Tunisia to have four points and almost certainly advance. At the bottom of our forecast is Group G, which means a team there is currently least likely to finish third. The reason why Group G's prospects are currently the lowest of all twelve groups is because the two weakest teams, Iran and New Zealand, drew 2-2 in their opening match. Both are underdogs in their upcoming matches, against Belgium and Egypt, meaning they have already missed their best chance of a win — it was in the match they played against each other. These teams now need two draws or one win to have a real chance. Everything is possible, of course. But neither of these outcomes is likely. Third, refer to the default setting — but with care. The important thing here is to limit your comparisons to teams from groups whose matches have been completed. If you want your team to get third place, all you have to do is be better than four third-place teams. If you're already in front of two of them with half the groups still unfinished, you're in good shape. All these graphs are updated minute by minute as the matches are played on our forecast pages. Keep an eye on them to know if your team will continue.

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